Oil prices eased on Friday while bonds were nursing losses, after global central bankers sounded the alarm on inflation risks stemming from the ongoing war in \u200bthe Middle East that has sent markets into a tailspin. Following a hectic week of monetary policy meetings across effectively the Group of Seven (G7) nations and others, \u200cthe key takeaway for investors has been the prospect of a more aggressive policy path. Traders are no longer expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, a hike from the Bank of England next month is seen as a coin toss, and sources said the European Central Bank may need to begin discussing rate increases in April and possibly tighten policy in June. “There’s a lot of value in the signal,” said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho’s head of macro \u200bresearch for Asia ex-Japan, of the hawkish rhetoric from central banks this week. “It’s a messaging to markets that we are on top of this, you don’t need \u200bto send yields unnecessarily higher, because… the yields are already starting to do the work for them.” A rout in global bonds pushed yields \u2060to multi-month highs on Thursday, though the selloff abated in Asia on Friday. Trading of cash US Treasuries was closed due to a holiday in Japan, but futures edged marginally higher. The \u200byield on the two-year US Treasury note, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, had jumped as much as over 20 basis points in the previous session. “Probably every day that goes by \u200bwithout an end to the war or clear positive steps increases the chances of that more adverse scenario for the bond market,” Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said of the possibility of rate hikes from major central banks by the year-end. For the month thus far, Germany’s two-year yield has already risen some 56 bps, while yields on two-year British gilts have jumped 88 bps. Energy chokehold Brent crude \u200bfutures were down 3% at $105.43 a barrel on Friday while US crude fell 2.2% to $94 per barrel, after leading European nations and Japan offered to join efforts to secure safe \u200bpassage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the US outlined moves to boost oil supply. Still, both remained well above levels prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran, having risen more than 40% this \u200cmonth. Natural gas prices \u2060have also soared, with those in Europe surging as much as 35% on Thursday, as Iranian and Israeli strikes targeted some of the Middle East’s most important gas infrastructure. That prompted US President Donald Trump to tell Israel not to repeat its attacks on Iranian natural gas infrastructure. “Even if the US leaves (the conflict), Israel might not leave, and there may still be some strikes and Iran will retaliate, maybe at a lower volume,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. “But this means that the Gulf will still be under pressure… so oil prices will not go \u200bback to $60, they will maybe stay at $90, at \u200bleast until the end of the year. \u2060So the shock is already unavoidable.” Shares steady, dollar falls MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.18% and was set for a weekly gain of roughly 0.7%, snapping two straight weeks of losses. The retreat in oil prices on Friday helped stabilise the market mood, though \u200bmoves remained volatile. Nasdaq futures rose 0.3% while S&P 500 futures advanced 0.37%, after closing lower in the overnight cash session. EUROSTOXX 50 futures \u200bwere up 0.87%, while \u2060DAX futures jumped 0.8%. The dollar was meanwhile set for a weekly loss of more than 1% , as investors priced in steeper rate hikes from other central banks this year as compared to the Fed. The euro last bought $1.1570, having jumped 1.2% on Thursday, while sterling was steady at $1.3424 after a 1.3% rise overnight. Even the yen , which was on the cusp of 160 per dollar in the previous \u2060session, found \u200bsome reprieve and last stood at 157.85. The Japanese currency was also supported by some hawkish comments from Bank of Japan \u200bGovernor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday, after the central bank held rates steady but maintained its bias for tighter monetary policy. Yusuke Miyairi, Nomura’s JPY FX and rates strategist, said that while Ueda may have left the door open to \u200ba rate hike in April, it remains “premature” to conclude that such a move would be coming. Elsewhere, spot gold was up 0.8% to $4,686.97 an ounce. , bonds struggle on hawkish rate repricing as Iran war rages<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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