Donald Trump\u2019s electoral victory has left Mexico bracing for potential trade tensions, tariffs and mass migrant deportations that experts say could pose a major test of relations between the closely connected neighbours. On the eve of the election, Trump vowed to impose tariffs of at least 25 per cent on goods coming from Mexico unless it stops an \u201conslaught of criminals and drugs.\u201d The Latin American nation \u201chas to take what Trump says seriously\u201d given his past actions such as building a border fence, said Pamela Starr, an expert on US-Mexican relations at the University of Southern California. At the same time, \u201cTrump likes to negotiate from a position of strength, which means he tends to use coercive rhetoric to lay out an extreme position from which he can negotiate down,\u201d she told AFP. Trump\u2019s win sent the Mexican peso sliding to a two-year low against the dollar as markets prepared for increased trade frictions. Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis for the financial group Banco Base, described tariffs of 25pc as \u201cno small threat\u201d. \u201cThey would affect exports, formal job creation, foreign direct investment and economic growth,\u201d likely leading to downgrades in Mexico\u2019s sovereign credit rating, she said. President Claudia Sheinbaum reassured Mexicans that Trump\u2019s victory was \u201cno cause for concern.\u201d Mexico and the United States have \u201ca very important economic integration that benefits both countries. It is a strength of both. We do not compete with each other, but on the contrary, we complement each other,\u201d she said. \u2018Credible threats\u2019 Experts think Trump\u2019s vow to carry out the largest mass deportation of migrants in American history will be one of the biggest tests for ties with Mexico. Trump \u201cwill absolutely try to deport as many undocumented migrants in the United States as possible, and that\u2019s going to create a real challenge in US-Mexico relations,\u201d Starr said. On the same day that Americans voted, hundreds of migrants in southern Mexico set off on foot in a caravan heading to the US border. Heyson Diaz, from Venezuela, urged Trump to offer migrants an immigration procedure \u201cto be able to enter the United States legally.\u201d It is not the first time that Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs unless Mexico does more to curb migrant flows \u2013 he did the same during his last presidency. \u201cAnd he got exactly the reaction that he wanted from Mexico,\u201d which sent a high-level team to Washington to negotiate an agreement, said Duncan Wood, president of the Pacific Council on International Policy, a US nonprofit organization. \u201cThese are credible threats. And Trump is not a free trader. The people around him this time around are not free traders. I think that there is every reason to believe that he would use that kind of threat to get Mexico to do exactly what he wants,\u201d he said. Trade relations were likely to \u201cget very messy,\u201d according to Wood, a longtime Mexico watcher who does not rule out Trump seeking to renegotiate a regional free trade agreement to obtain better terms. That uncertainty would throw up a major hurdle to Mexico\u2019s efforts to lure US-owned factories from Asia \u2014 a trend known as \u201cnearshoring.\u201d The free trade deal between Mexico, the United States and Canada \u2014 which Trump successfully pushed to revamp during his last presidency \u2014 is due to be reviewed in 2026. \u201cA Republican victory could imply a more aggressive negotiation style, generating more uncertainty that could permeate the exchange rate and inflation in particular,\u201d said Ramse Gutierrez, vice president at investment firm Franklin Templeton in Mexico City. Tough talk on cartels When it comes to tackling drug trafficking, however, tough talk about bombing Mexican cartels or sending troops over the border is unlikely to become a reality, Wood said. \u201cLaunching missile strikes into Mexico is not what the US military wants to do,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd any kind of boots-on-the-ground action in Mexico just would not fly,\u201d he added. Mexico\u2019s President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during her daily press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on November 6. \u2014 AFPOn a personal level, relations between Washington and Mexico City are also expected to be rockier than they would have been if Democrat Kamala Harris had won. \u201cThe problem is that Sheinbaum\u2019s not only a woman, but she\u2019s a strong, smart woman. And those aren\u2019t the kind of women that Donald Trump is comfortable around,\u201d Starr said. \u201cI think he will challenge her and push her and corner her. But she\u2019s tough, and I suspect that she will hit back as hard and he will realize that he has to come to some sort of an agreement with her, ultimately,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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